We wanted to go to Belize, Costa Rica, St. Martin or Trinidad & Tobago. Mexico was our back-up destination. (Hey, we are looking for sun and sand. And somewhere new.)
I started looking for tickets last February (some search engines, like Kayak, only let you search a year in advance). In my view, prices were high, and they stayed high. Keeping in mind I was looking at several places, prices varied between $600-$1000 or more. Even the tickets to Mexico were over priced, at $550-$650 per person.
Just for comparison, two years ago we flew to Cancun (and spent two weeks on Isla Mujeres) for $450 a ticket. I decided my target price for Mexico was $475, Belize or Costa Rica $550, and Trinidad or St. Martin $625.
Kayak saves your searches, so I kept looking, two or three times a month, on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday. I kept track of the prices, and noticed very little fluctuation. Then, the morning of Thursday October 18, I noticed prices to Los Cabos (SJD) dropped to $490 on a non-stop flight on Virgin America. I thought about this at work, and that evening decided to buy. When I looked again the price dropped to $470 a ticket, so I bought right then.
I bought direct from Virgin America.
I checked back three times in the following three weeks, looking at the same dates we are flying, and prices dropped to $450, then up to $520 and $580. Currently they are at $715. In the time frame we have to fly out, the "lowest prices" on the Kayak chart are at $435, but it does not tell when the return flight is.
So, did I get a great deal? Not the best, but OK this time. I could have saved a solid $20 to (perhaps?) $35 a ticket; on the other hand I felt good considering what the prices had been.
In summary:
- Be willing to take a risk! The world is supposed to end on 12.21.12 so we could be out our airfare and deposit.
- Check often when you know you want to go.
- Shop on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays.
- Be patient. I often find great deals 6 months out, this time it was six weeks.
- Be flexible. Have several leave/return dates, and multiple locations you are willing to go.
- Track the prices, and set a target.
- Be ready to buy when you see the drop.
So, if the world doesn't grind to a halt on 12.21.12, we have two weeks of sun, sand and exploring La Paz. What's not to love?